Conquering Force

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 79

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-17	Ellis Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-25	Ellis Park	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength47%

Delivery trend +33.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/07/2026	9th	9/1	53%	11%	-0.42
17/08/2026	4th	8/1	58%	50%	-0.08