Frenchquarter Note

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 67

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-17	Saratoga	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-06-12	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -100.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	43%	+0.27
17/07/2026	6th	5/1	74%	0%	-0.74