Berning Beauty

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 85

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#10

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-18	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-18	Saratoga	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-19	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-16	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-03-21	Aqueduct	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6
2026-02-04	Aqueduct	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength44%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/11/2025	2nd	2/1	89%	83%	-0.06
18/11/2025	1st	1/1	95%	100%	+0.05
28/12/2025	2nd	13/2	66%	89%	+0.23
04/02/2026	5th	4/1	79%	33%	-0.46
21/03/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
16/05/2026	5th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
19/06/2026	4th	20/1	0%	40%	+0.40
18/07/2026	5th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
18/08/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	60%	-0.16