5
Cicciobello
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 94
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 06/03/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |