2
Concorde Spirit
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 91
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 56% | -0.39 |
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |