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9

King's Leap

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 93

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA88 @ Finger Lakes 14/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 88 · 1m110y 120 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 88 par14/0788OR 88C5 @ Finger Lakes 29/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 93 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 93 parBHA91 @ Saratoga 21/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 91 · 1m1f 122 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 91 par21/0891OR 91C5 @ Finger Lakes 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 95 parC5 @ Aqueduct 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 1m1f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 94 par7/11C5OR 94C6 @ Aqueduct 01/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 93 · 1m1f 123 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 93 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 91 · 6f Gd 124 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 91 par10/06C6OR 91C6 @ Finger Lakes 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 1m Fas 124 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 88 · 1m 126 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 88 par18/07C6OR 88projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-06-29Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-06-10Finger Lakes?4th4th0
2026-01-01Aqueduct?5th5th0
2025-11-07Aqueduct?1st0th+1
2025-10-06Finger Lakes?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/076/1010/0618/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20253rd9/153%33%-0.19
29/07/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
21/08/20253rd14/126%50%+0.24
06/10/20251st3/1098%100%+0.02
07/11/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
01/01/20265th5/174%20%-0.54
10/06/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
29/06/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
18/07/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46