IvyArcIvyArc
7

Long Pour

4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 93

Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 95 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 95 par19/10C5OR 95C5 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 97 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 97 parC5 @ Aqueduct 07/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 97 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 97 par7/12C5OR 97C6 @ Gulfstream 11/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 94 · 5f Fm 121 · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 94 parC6 @ Gulfstream 22/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 90 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 90 par22/02C6OR 90C5 @ Keeneland 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 88 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 88 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 17/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 88 · 5f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 88 par17/05C5OR 88C5 @ Saratoga 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 86 · 7f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 86 parC6 @ Saratoga 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 90 · 6f 126 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 90 par7/08C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-06-07Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-05-17Churchill Downs?9th8th+1
2026-04-12Keeneland?3rd2nd+1
2026-02-22Gulfstream?3rd3rd0
2026-01-11Gulfstream?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1011/0117/057/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/20252nd4/179%83%+0.04
15/11/20254th11/1094%40%-0.54
07/12/20254th11/271%57%-0.14
11/01/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
22/02/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
12/04/20263rd12/137%50%+0.13
17/05/20269th25/10%27%+0.27
07/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
07/08/20264th15/890%40%-0.50