1
Shadow Dragon
6yo Horse · 9-0 · OR 91
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |