3
Sunday Boy
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 90
Belmont Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |