IvyArcIvyArc
4

Destino D'oro

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 108

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Forever Together Stakes · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Kentucky Downs 31/08/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m Fm 11931/08C6C0 @ Keeneland 04/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2024 · OR 104 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 20/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 101 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 101 par20/06C5OR 101C1 @ Ellis Park 03/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 103 · 1m1f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 103 parC1 @ Kentucky Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 106 · 1m2f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 106 par10/09C1OR 106C0 @ Keeneland 11/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 108 · 1m1f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 108 parBHA106 @ Gulfstream 13/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 106 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 106 par13/12106OR 106C0 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 109 · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Tampa Bay Downs 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 112 · 1m1f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 112 par7/03C?OR 112projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-07Tampa Bay Downs?1st-4th+4
2026-01-24Gulfstream?1st-4th+4
2025-12-13GulfstreamBHA1061st8th−6
2025-10-11Keeneland?8th3rd+4
2025-09-10Kentucky Downs?6th1st+4
2025-08-03Ellis Park?1st-4th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/083/0813/127/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20241st11/271%100%+0.29
04/10/20243rd11/1094%80%-0.14
20/06/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
03/08/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
10/09/20256th10/1195%55%-0.41
11/10/20258th4/179%0%-0.79
13/12/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
24/01/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
07/03/20261st11/486%100%+0.14