6
Modarosa
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 100
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Forever Together Stakes · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2024 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |