3
Italianne
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/11/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |