2
Probable Choice
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 51
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 05/10/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |