10
Mellina De Mai
4yo Filly · 0-0
Cholet · Prix Des Iris - Attele · 1m 5f 202y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saint-Malo | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Meslay Du Maine | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-12 | Angers | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-06 | Argentan | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 11/06/2025 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 62% | +0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.86 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |