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6

Army Run

2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 32

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 09/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS9/08C6C6 @ Colonial Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 50 par5/09C6OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Colonial Downs?9th6th+3
2026-08-09Colonial Downs?9th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +71.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20269th11/271%0%-0.71
05/09/20269th20/10%0%0.00