4
Coldspring
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength34%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-8 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |