11
Denial
2yo Filly · 8-4 · OR 68
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +3.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 5th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 7-12 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |