Lookism

2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 62

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-09	Kentucky Downs	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-08-21	Ellis Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4
2026-07-19	Ellis Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength93%

Delivery trend -8.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/07/2026	2nd	6/1	68%	86%	+0.17
21/08/2026	5th	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60
09/09/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00