1
Lords Prayer
2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 35
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength75%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 10.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +16.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 25/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |