5
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2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 63
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 5-10 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |