Tiz General

2yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69

Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼2

Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-28	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	9.4
2026-08-09	Colonial Downs	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-07-19	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-05-17	Churchill Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength25%

Delivery trend -22.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/05/2026	4th	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
19/07/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	67%	+0.51
09/08/2026	4th	9/1	53%	63%	+0.10
28/08/2026	3rd	3/1	84%	71%	-0.13