11
Kihei Kiana
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -57.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |