1
Southern Way
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |