9
Sweet Venture
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 81
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |