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2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 72

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 5f Fas 11921/06C6C6 @ Ellis Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 54 par4/07C6OR 54C6 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m 119 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 67 par30/08C6OR 67projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Kentucky Downs?4th4th0
2026-07-04Ellis Park?4th4th0
2026-06-21Churchill Downs?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/064/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20268th40/10%36%+0.36
04/07/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
30/08/20264th14/126%73%+0.46