Antrax
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 27/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |