1
Colonel Compton
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 08/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 31/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |