Il Cavallino
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |