Kirin
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 95
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 30/08/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |