2
War Munny
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |