8
Comprehensive
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 102
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 90% | -0.05 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 82% | -0.12 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 45% | -0.44 |