10
Kelz
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 21/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |