11
Mr Bobo
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 30/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |