5
Navigate
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 78
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/12/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 05/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |