4
Cara Felce
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 18/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |