6
Cold Case
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 08/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 1/1 | 95% | 38% | -0.57 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |