1
Diablo Shiraz
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 14/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |