3
Menkaure
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |