True Princess
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-09-08 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2024-05-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2023 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 26/01/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/05/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/09/2024 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/12/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 20/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |