2
West Coast Dream
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength99%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |