4
Bagg O Time
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/04/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |