Dewy's Denali
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 13/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |