East Village
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-10-23 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 19/04/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |