8
Fast Joker
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |