1
Fitzgerald
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |