3
Malevaje
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 8.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2024 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 10/07/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 22/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/12/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 19/03/2026 | 12th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |