7
Refined Design
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 18/01/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |