5
T V Channel
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |