1
Etna
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 23/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |