10
Annelle
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 12/04/2025 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/05/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 31/08/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |